My Life Blog

It was suggested to me either seriously or in jest today that the Dallas Mavericks made the NBA Finals this year to accommodate the NBA’s need to restore big market teams into their premier event.  In short, talent and superior preparation alone weren’t the reason the Mavericks advanced to the Finals.  Rather, its an NBA conspiracy.

To me, this is baseless and reeks of sour grapes.  So let’s take a look at the teams that the Mavericks eliminated and do some analysis.

The regular season lasts roughly six months, while the playoffs last a little over two months.  In the regular season, the NBA and the TV networks have the ability to showcase any team in the league.  But curiously, the Mavericks come in fourth among the Western Conference playoff teams.  The leaders were the Lakers (34), Phoenix (33), and San Antonio (30).  The Mavericks were seen 27 times.  Memphis came in 7th with 7 viewings.  Based upon these numbers, the Mavericks were at best the fourth choice among the available Western Conference teams.  So far, it doesn’t sound like a conspiracy.

If there was ever a media darling, it was probably the Lakers as they held the biggest market.  But somehow the league could not engineer a Lakers upset of Phoenix in the first round.  I will grant you that it was a close series (4-3). 

Note also that the Los Angeles market had a second chance with the Clippers.  Again, down they went to the same Suns, this time in the second round.  And again, a close series (4-3).  So far, still no proof of a conspiracy.

The series in question is the San Antonio series.  Again, San Antonio should be the preferred team based upon the stated regular season preference.  But if the preference of the alleged conspirators had flip-flopped then how would they get the Mavericks into the Finals?  Its doubtful you could manipulate players in the 2nd round; just look at the key players and tell me who you’d have to buy out.  So there’s no way that could happen.  The only other people on the court are the referees.  So let’s take a look:

PF = Personal Fouls
SF = Personal Fouls by Starters
NP = Number of players to get in the game
W  = Win followed by point differential.

Game 1:
  Mavs:  PF(24), SF(14), NP(10)
  Spurs: PF(20), SF(15), NP(10), W+2

Game 2:
  Mavs:  PF(27), SF(15), NP(12), W+22
  Spurs: PF(26), SF(12), NP(12)

Game 3:
  Mavs:  PF(26), SF(14), NP(9), W+1
  Spurs: PF(33), SF(23), NP(10)

Game 4:
  Mavs:  PF(24), SF(18), NP(8), W+5 OT
  Spurs: PF(26), SF(16), NP(8)

Game 5:
  Mavs:  PF(26), SF(16), NP(10)
  Spurs: PF(19), SF(13), NP(8), W+1

Game 6:
  Mavs:  PF(29), SF(14), NP(10)
  Spurs: PF(19), SF(13), NP(8), W+5

Game 7:
  Mavs:  PF(32), SF(21), NP(10), W+8 OT
  Spurs: PF(25), SF(23), NP(8)

I’m using personal fouls as a basis for determining whether referees may have intervened.  I make full concessions that the aggregate numbers may not tell the entire story.  A key foul at the wrong time may be equally as devastating as 5 discretionary fouls throughout the game.  Also, a team can rack up a lot of fouls late in the game as they try to slow the game down to make their comeback.

Turnovers and other judgment calls factor in too, but are not included here.  But if you accept that foul-calling is the primary method for a ref to influence the game, then here you go.

In Game 1, you could argue that the Mavericks were wronged as they have a +4 for fouls in the game.  The starters match fouls for the most part.  To me, this looks even.

In Game 2, SA has fewer fouls called on the entire team and on their starters and they lose by 22 points.  Granted, the starters sat the bench much of the game.  No wrong-doing here.

In Game 3, SA gets into foul trouble and is +7 for total fouls and +9 for fouls by starters.  Early on, this is a suspect game if you are conspiracist.  SA loses by 1 point.

In Game 4, SA is +2 for total, but -2 for their starters.  For the Mavericks, Erick Dampier fouls out coming off the bench.  Diop fouls out as well.  The Mavericks win in OT.  This looks pretty even to me.

In Game 5, the Mavs lose the PF battle 26-19 and have +3 for their starters.  They lose by 1 point.  This game makes up for Game 3’s imbalance.

In Game 6, the Mavs outfoul the Spurs by a whopping 10 and the Spurs win by 5.  Given the disparity, you’d have to feel that the Mavericks are being conspired against.  10 fouls is a huge disparity.

In Game 7, the deciding game, the Mavs get called for 7 more fouls than the Spurs.  Fouls by starters are roughly equal.  Even with the disadvantage in calls, the Mavs push the game to overtime and win by 8.

If there is a conspiracy, the evidence cannot be uncovered through these stats.  To me, this looks like an even series that was decided by the players.  And Dallas was the deeper team.  They consistently played deeper into their bench with more substantial minutes.  The Spurs could only go eight deep and then they were done.

It should be pointed out that foul trouble for SA was a much worse fate than for the Mavericks.  As deep as the Mavericks are, they are better prepared to survive foul trouble.

Sorry guys, myth busted.